This paper employs systems-based cointegration techniques developed by [Reference to Johansen] and [Reference to Johansen] to determine which European Union countries would form a successful Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), based on long-run behavior of the nominal convergence criteria laid down in the Maastricht treaty. The original 12 European Union countries are analyzed together. Nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates, long-term interest rates, and government budget deficits are each analyzed for co-movements among the 12 countries and various subgroups of them. The results suggest that not all of the 12 original countries of the European Union can form a successful EMU over time, unless several countries make significant adjustments.
Haug, Alfred A. and Michelis, Leo, "European Monetary Union: a cointegration analysis" (2000). Economics Publications and Research. Paper 11.